The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 48% chance that they will end up above normal and a 19% chance that they will end up below normal. If you click here, this is exactly what my model showed, which is telling me further that we remain on track to keep getting the long range right. Questions? Our weather forecast can give you a great sense of what weather to expect in Arizona in February 2024.. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts for temperature a 35% chance that they will end up above normal and a 32% chance that they will end up below normal. 3rd Coldest January- February on Record in 2021. A couple of weak weather systems moved across the area on the 28th through 30th bringing the area another shot of valley rain and mountain snow. Arizona weather in January 2024 The temperatures in Arizona in January are quite cold with temperatures between 48F and 66F, warm clothes are a must. One month remains in climatological Winter and so far it has been warmer (55.7 or +2.3) and slightly drier (1.62" or -0.18") than normal. "Seasonal outlooks help communities prepare for what is likely to come in the months ahead and minimize weather's impacts on lives and livelihoods," NOAA said. For us across the Southwest, La Nia typically brings drier-than-normal conditions during the winter. Above normal moisture values for early October combined with several atmospheric disturbances moving across the area produced isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms on a daily basis during the first ten days of the month. Scottsdale, Arizona Weather Forecast | AerisWeather It's also the ninth time February this century that the average monthly temperature was below normal. Flagstaff, AZ Winter Weather Forecast | AccuWeather Today WinterCast Hourly Daily Radar MinuteCast Monthly Air Quality Health & Activities Winter Storm Warning Snow and Ice Outlook 12 - 18. Winter 2021-2022 One month remains in climatological Winter and so far it has been warmer (55.7 or +2.3) and slightly drier (1.62" or -0.18") than normal. Amounts ranged from 3" to 8" with localized higher amounts up to 12". Amounts ranged from 1.00" to 4.50" with localized amounts up to 6.50". Flagstaff, Arizona Long Range Weather Forecast | WeatherTAB The first day of winter and the shortest day of the year, officially arrives on December 21, 2022, but that doesn't always mean that the cold temperatures and snow storms will wait until then. The water year rainfall is at the half-way mark with a paltry 2.03" being recorded. La Nia is expected to be the main driver for the third winter in a row. Last year, the Almanac predicted many of the 2021-2022 winter storms, most notably: the early-season nor'easter in the end of October, and the unusual blizzard in the last week of April (in parts of Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas). The average Fall temperature of 71.3 is 1.0 below the 1991-2020 normal. The Farmers' Almanac is out with their Extended Winter Outlook for 2021-2022 and is calling for a "Frosty Flip-Flop Winter". Whether the polar vortex stays strong or weakens at some point in winter can definitely impact the forecast. Precipitation: Below Average For the first time since 2010, September recorded more triple digit high temperatures (8) than August did (7). The Farmers' Almanac predicts winter will be wild in much of the United States, but pretty average in Utah. It will modify the jet stream pattern over North America and the Pacific Ocean, extending its reach to the rest of the world. Rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, varied widely across the metro area which is always the case during the summer thunderstorm season. Temperature extremes for Fall ranged from a high of 103 on September 6th to a low of 36 on November 26th. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 79 on the 27th to a low of 30 on the 15th & 17th. For only the third time since 1910, no temperature records were set during the first three months of the year. When Does It End? The 30-year-old Musgrove is coming off the best season of his career and a stellar postseason run that included 7.0 dominant innings in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game 3 against the Mets in New York. HOME > Outlook Maps >Seasonal Forecast Discussion. For the most part, it looks like fairly, you know, pleasant, quiet kind of weather in September and a good part of October, Geiger said. Extended Winter Weather Forecast for 2022-2023 Goes to the 'Extreme' Here in the Valley, showers will be off and on throughout overnight. Calendar overview of Months Weather Forecast. Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook - National Oceanic and Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 104 on the 6th and 30th to a low of 70 on the 23rd. Essentially, the formula uses sunspot activity andthe effect the moon has on the earth to be able to predict weather about two years in advance. Thus expect the consecutive year streak of above normal temperatures to be extended to 25 years. Our Office; Monsoon; Monsoon Safety; SE Arizona drought page; . NWS Tucson Arizona520 North Park Ave, Suite 304Tucson, AZ 85719(520) 670-6526Comments? Areas south of the storm track (much of the Southeast) will see frequent storms bringing cold rains and a wintry mix . Precipitation: Equal chances use the map provided below. The most frigid weather will likely arrive in late January, and it could be rather brutal. A warmer February is also possible from the mid-Atlantic states into the rest of the Southeast, Southern Plains westward into New Mexico and eastern Arizona. Generally, cool areas of the country are expected to see significant snowfalls before the start of December, although the almanac predicts Thanksgiving could have good weather in most areas of the U.S. Christmas, on the other hand, could be unsettled with either rain or snow depending on your local temperatures, the almanac says. A record warm low temperature was set on the 22nd with a low of 66 breaking the record of 64 from 2016. The wather in Arizona in January can vary between cold and nice weather days. Sorry, the location you searched for was not found. Three temperature records (one high & two warm lows) were set or tied. With that being said, the colder than normal temperatures are already being felt in both regions. Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks. You'll receive your first newsletter soon! But there's a potential curveball with La Nia this winter. Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. According to the Farmers Almanac winter weather forecast for Arizona, the 2022-2023 winter season will be a milder affair this year though drier than average, too. This is the 2nd most number of days during Summer on record but well behind the record of 33 days set in 2020. Arizona weather in January 2024 | Arizona 14 day weather CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE AND SIGN-UP Avg Low Temps 35 to 50 Avg High Temps 15 to 25 Avg Low Temps 0 to 10 Rain Frequency 1 to 3 days Click or Tap on any day for a detailed forecast. The average temperature in Arizona in January is. NWS One temperature record was set during the month when the high of 85 on the 19th set a daily cool high record, besting the old record of 86 from 1966. US Dept of Commerce CLIMAS Since we never quite know what to expect, this upcoming season couldn't possibly catch us off-guard right? I hope you had a great Christmas and a Happy New Year so far. 2023 www.azcentral.com. This is the second consecutive October to be below normal. But when will it really start? . One exception was the pandemic year of 2020, when travel all but came to a. Meanwhile, the southern U.S. is expected to have a warmer than usual winter. The states climate is varied and unique, featuring many different biomes and environments. Editor's note: The above video aired during a previous year's forecast. Get Downloadable Images and More Here. The weather in Arizona in January is good. Drought, wildfires, heat and monsoon storms: Arizona has seen its fair share of severe weather. The table below shows the breakdown for highs, low maximums and high minimums. Even as we swelter through the last stretch of summer's "dog days," the upcoming winter outlooks for the 2022-2023 season from the Farmers' Almanac and The Old Farmer's Almanac are enough to send shivers down one's spine. "We have no strong reason to favor a super-weak vortex like we had in winter 2020-21 at this time, and feel this winter be more like last winter," Crawford said. Could Arizona be in for another dry winter, leading to even worse drought conditions? The Spring seasonal forecast for the area, issued February 17th, called for a 46% chance of above normal temperatures & a 42% chance of below normal precipitation. This is when you get these delivered to your e-mail of choosing AND get your own micro-climate alert system based on your zone for my winter and storm alert products that are not posted on social media when issued. In northern Arizona, its snowy and chilly, though usually still quite dry. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a La Nia Watch on Thursday for the potential re-emergence of La Nia conditions by the fall. The first five months were rather dry with the airport only recording 0.67" or 2" below normal. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 111 on the 16th to a low of 66 on the 5th. ARIZONA WEATHER FORCE MAIN: Arizona Weather Force Office Main Page For updates. Mostly cloudy. A high minimum temperature of 75 on the 27th set a new daily record, eclipsing the old record of 73 from 1963 & 1989. A high minimum temperature of 59 on the 4th broke the old warm low for the date of 56 from 1946. The seasonal average temperature of 71.0 goes into the record books as the 5th warmest Spring on record. Friday, April 08, 2022 Flagstaff Weather -- April 8, 2022 Student forecaster Julia Castro has the latest on the weekend weather in northern Arizona. 47.9 Degrees C is 118.2 degrees F. Wow! Phoenix, Arizona Long Range Weather Forecast | WeatherTAB Arctic 2022 Summer - Coldest on Record. The water year is well below normal since October 1st at 2.26" which ranks as the 9th driest water year to date with three months left in the water year calendar. Blistering, Record-Breaking Heat Lytton, B.C. Rainfall at the Tucson International airport, the official location in Tucson, of two-thirds of an inch (0.67") is two inches below normal and ranks as the 9th driest January through May period on record. Odds are tilted toward a colder than average winter from the Northern Plains and Great Lakes to northern New England. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. United States and Canada 2022 Winter Outlook Predictions - global Discover More in Washington State on Flipboard The Tucson International airport, the official recording location in Tucson, recorded 4.94" which ranks as the 46th driest monsoon on record. To troubleshoot, here is the link to get situated. The Tucson International airport, which is the official recording spot in Tucson, recorded 1.27" which is around a third of an inch above normal and ranks as the 37th wettest December on record. This is a quite a difference from a year ago when the airport recorded 13.84" of rain through the end of October. That means that La Nina is NOT controlling the current weather pattern for the season thus far. 27, 2022 The posted Quail Forever forecast of a bird hatch in NM and AZ is pretty bleak with drought conditions continuing throughout the Southwest. Or rather when will it finally feel like fall? And that would bring a significantly colder risk to much of the northern U.S. this winter, according to Crawford. We are already at 10 for Los Angeles, which shows we are on track here in the Desert Southwest with that number not even close to being a traditional La Nina. Expect a few rainy days but usually not more than 3. Weather in Phoenix in December 2022 (Arizona) - Detailed Weather Forecast for a Month World United States Arizona Weather in Phoenix Weather in Phoenix in December 2022 Phoenix Weather Forecast for December 2022 is based on statistical data. Some of the storms produced heavy rain, especially on the 4th, 5th, 6th & 8th. Waters off New England had 2nd warmest year on record in 2022 Rainfall amounts, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, varied widely across the metro area as is usually the case during the summer thunderstorm season. NOTE: The Winter 2022 Tier for MEMBERS and ANYONE INTERESTED is OPEN FOR JANUARY THROUGH END FEBRUARY WITH REDUCED SEASONAL TIER RATES. Arizona Winter Weather Outlook Rainfall amounts across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages and CoCoRaHS, were mostly below a third of an inch (0.33") with isolated spots recording up to 1.00". The average yearly temperature is below normal for the calendar year through the end of March for the first time since 2017 and the fourth time this century (2001 & 2013). The average monthly low temperature of 72.4 established a new monthly record, eclipsing the old record of 72.3 from 2018. Ninety-nine percent of the state is experiencing some level of drought with more than half of the state experiencing an Exceptional drought, which is the worst level. What to expect this winter: NOAA's 2021-22 Winter Outlook The first eight days of the month were on the quiet side before turning active between the 9th and 13th thanks to deeper tropical moisture moving across the area from Hurricance Kay, which moved northwest off the Baja Coast. It is certainly a possibility with the threat of another La Nia on the horizon. April climate data across southeast Arizona. It ended being the coolest Fall since 2006. 12News+ showcases live video throughout the day for breaking news, local news, weather and even an occasional moment of Zen showcasing breathtaking sights from across Arizona. Temperatures: Below Average, Arizona This is in sharp contrast to the previous water year which was rather wet with the airport recording 14.23". The monthly average temperature of 71.8 is just under four degrees above normal and ranks as the 4th warmest April on record. This fall, the almanac forecasted lower-than-usual temperatures across the United States, with cold temperatures taking over for good in late November. As we mentioned above, one of the best things to do in Arizona in the winter is camping and/or hiking, but of course, there are more! U.S. Winter Outlook: Warmer, drier South with ongoing La Nina It's the 13th April with ZERO rainfall. Flagstaff, AZ Winter Weather Forecast | AccuWeather The deep monsoonal moisture that was over the area for most of the month started to dry out during the last week of the month under a drier upper air pattern. This ranks as the 5th warmest monsoon on record, tied with 2011. My model is showing drier than normal conditions for most of California, majorly drier than normal for Southern California than Northern. SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS. The atmosphere's response, which ultimately matters for our weather patterns, may resemble a winter without a La Nia. Rain and snow are moving across our state as we ring in the new year. Reuben Salazar clears snow from his home in Flagstaff on Feb. 23, 2022. We start off the new year here with the January 2022 forecast. He also said that in its more than 200 years of printing, only seven people have done the weather, with each working for about 30 or 40 years andthey have applied that sameformula. Snowfall will be below normal in most areas that normally receive snow, with the snowiest periods in early to mid-January and early February. What is the chance of rain in Arizona in January? NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD. This led to isolated areas of heavy rain and flash flooding along with hail. For the first time since 2004, the average Fall temperature was below normal. One of the strongest thunderstorms of the month hit the airport on the evening of the 23rd with a wind gust of 76 mph. However, January should at least be somewhat colder than usual from parts of Washington state and northern Idaho to the northern Plains, much of the Midwest and interior Northeast into northern New England.

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